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Time-Series Anomaly Classification for Launch Vehicle Propulsion Systems: Fast Statistical Detectors Enhancing LSTM Accuracy and Data Quality

Engelstad, Sean P., Darr, Sameul R., Taliaferro, Matthew, Goyal, Vinay K.

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Supporting Go/No-Go decisions prior to launch requires assessing real-time telemetry data against redline limits established during the design qualification phase. Family data from ground testing or previous flights is commonly used to detect initiating failure modes and their timing; however, this approach relies heavily on engineering judgment and is more error-prone for new launch vehicles. To address these limitations, we utilize Long-Term Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks for supervised classification of time-series anomalies. Although, initial training labels derived from simulated anomaly data may be suboptimal due to variations in anomaly strength, anomaly settling times, and other factors. In this work, we propose a novel statistical detector based on the Mahalanobis distance and forward-backward detection fractions to adjust the supervised training labels. We demonstrate our method on digital twin simulations of a ground-stage propulsion system with 20.8 minutes of operation per trial and O(10^8) training timesteps. The statistical data relabeling improved precision and recall of the LSTM classifier by 7% and 22% respectively.


Predicting the Containment Time of California Wildfires Using Machine Learning

Bhardwaj, Shashank

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

California's wildfire season keeps getting worse over the years, overwhelming the emergency response teams. These fires cause massive destruction to both property and human life. Because of these reasons, there's a growing need for accurate and practical predictions that can help assist with resources allocation for the Wildfire managers or the response teams. In this research, we built machine learning models to predict the number of days it will require to fully contain a wildfire in California. Here, we addressed an important gap in the current literature. Most prior research has concentrated on wildfire risk or how fires spread, and the few that examine the duration typically predict it in broader categories rather than a continuous measure. This research treats the wildfire duration prediction as a regression task, which allows for more detailed and precise forecasts rather than just the broader categorical predictions used in prior work. We built the models by combining three publicly available datasets from California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection's Fire and Resource Assessment Program (FRAP). This study compared the performance of baseline ensemble regressor, Random Forest and XGBoost, with a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) neural network. The results show that the XGBoost model slightly outperforms the Random Forest model, likely due to its superior handling of static features in the dataset. The LSTM model, on the other hand, performed worse than the ensemble models because the dataset lacked temporal features. Overall, this study shows that, depending on the feature availability, Wildfire managers or Fire management authorities can select the most appropriate model to accurately predict wildfire containment duration and allocate resources effectively.


A Hybrid Model for Stock Market Forecasting: Integrating News Sentiment and Time Series Data with Graph Neural Networks

Sadek, Nader, Moawad, Mirette, Naguib, Christina, Elzahaby, Mariam

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Stock market prediction is a long-standing challenge in finance, as accurate forecasts support informed investment decisions. Traditional models rely mainly on historical prices, but recent work shows that financial news can provide useful external signals. This paper investigates a multimodal approach that integrates companies' news articles with their historical stock data to improve prediction performance. We compare a Graph Neural Network (GNN) model with a baseline LSTM model. Historical data for each company is encoded using an LSTM, while news titles are embedded with a language model. These embeddings form nodes in a heterogeneous graph, and GraphSAGE is used to capture interactions between articles, companies, and industries. We evaluate two targets: a binary direction-of-change label and a significance-based label. Experiments on the US equities and Bloomberg datasets show that the GNN outperforms the LSTM baseline, achieving 53% accuracy on the first target and a 4% precision gain on the second. Results also indicate that companies with more associated news yield higher prediction accuracy. Moreover, headlines contain stronger predictive signals than full articles, suggesting that concise news summaries play an important role in short-term market reactions.


An Additive Manufacturing Part Qualification Framework: Transferring Knowledge of Stress-strain Behaviors from Additively Manufactured Polymers to Metals

Duan, Chenglong, Wu, Dazhong

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Part qualification is crucial in additive manufacturing (AM) because it ensures that additively manufactured parts can be consistently produced and reliably used in critical applications. Part qualification aims at verifying that an additively manufactured part meets performance requirements; therefore, predicting the complex stress-strain behaviors of additively manufactured parts is critical. We develop a dynamic time warping (DTW)-transfer learning (TL) framework for additive manufacturing part qualification by transferring knowledge of the stress-strain behaviors of additively manufactured low-cost polymers to metals. Specifically, the framework employs DTW to select a polymer dataset as the source domain that is the most relevant to the target metal dataset. Using a long short-term memory (LSTM) model, four source polymers (i.e., Nylon, PLA, CF-ABS, and Resin) and three target metals (i.e., AlSi10Mg, Ti6Al4V, and carbon steel) that are fabricated by different AM techniques are utilized to demonstrate the effectiveness of the DTW-TL framework. Experimental results show that the DTW-TL framework identifies the closest match between polymers and metals to select one single polymer dataset as the source domain. The DTW-TL model achieves the lowest mean absolute percentage error of 12.41% and highest coefficient of determination of 0.96 when three metals are used as the target domain, respectively, outperforming the vanilla LSTM model without TL as well as the TL model pre-trained on four polymer datasets as the source domain.


Real-time Air Pollution prediction model based on Spatiotemporal Big data

Le, Van-Duc, Bui, Tien-Cuong, Cha, Sang Kyun

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Air pollution is one of the most concerns for urban areas. Many countries have constructed monitoring stations to hourly collect pollution values. Recently, there is a research in Daegu city, Korea for real-time air quality monitoring via sensors installed on taxis running across the whole city. The collected data is huge (1-second interval) and in both Spatial and Temporal format. In this paper, based on this spatiotemporal Big data, we propose a real-time air pollution prediction model based on Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) algorithm for image-like Spatial distribution of air pollution. Regarding to Temporal information in the data, we introduce a combination of a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) unit for time series data and a Neural Network model for other air pollution impact factors such as weather conditions to build a hybrid prediction model. This model is simple in architecture but still brings good prediction ability.


QL-LSTM: A Parameter-Efficient LSTM for Stable Long-Sequence Modeling

Nti, Isaac Kofi

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Recurrent neural architectures such as LSTM and GRU remain widely used in sequence modeling, but they continue to face two core limitations: redundant gate-specific parameters and reduced ability to retain information across long temporal distances. This paper introduces the Quantum-Leap LSTM (QL-LSTM), a recurrent architecture designed to address both challenges through two independent components. The Parameter-Shared Unified Gating mechanism replaces all gate-specific transformations with a single shared weight matrix, reducing parameters by approximately 48 percent while preserving full gating behavior. The Hierarchical Gated Recurrence with Additive Skip Connections component adds a multiplication-free pathway that improves long-range information flow and reduces forget-gate degradation. We evaluate QL-LSTM on sentiment classification using the IMDB dataset with extended document lengths, comparing it to LSTM, GRU, and BiLSTM reference models. QL-LSTM achieves competitive accuracy while using substantially fewer parameters. Although the PSUG and HGR-ASC components are more efficient per time step, the current prototype remains limited by the inherent sequential nature of recurrent models and therefore does not yet yield wall-clock speed improvements without further kernel-level optimization.


KAN vs LSTM Performance in Time Series Forecasting

Rather, Tabish Ali, Joy, S M Mahmudul Hasan, Sukhorukova, Nadezda, Frascoli, Federico

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This paper compares Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks (KAN) and Long Short-Term Memory networks (LSTM) for forecasting non-deterministic stock price data, evaluating predictive accuracy versus interpretability trade-offs using Root Mean Square Error (RMSE).LSTM demonstrates substantial superiority across all tested prediction horizons, confirming their established effectiveness for sequential data modelling. Standard KAN, while offering theoretical interpretability through the Kolmogorov-Arnold representation theorem, exhibits significantly higher error rates and limited practical applicability for time series forecasting. The results confirm LSTM dominance in accuracy-critical time series applications while identifying computational efficiency as KANs' primary advantage in resource-constrained scenarios where accuracy requirements are less stringent. The findings support LSTM adoption for practical financial forecasting while suggesting that continued research into specialised KAN architectures may yield future improvements.




Semiconductor Industry Trend Prediction with Event Intervention Based on LSTM Model in Sentiment-Enhanced Time Series Data

Yen, Wei-hsiang, Chen, Lyn Chao-ling

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The innovation of the study is that the deep learning method and sentiment analysis are integrated in traditional business model analysis and forecasting, and the research subject is TSMC for industry trend prediction of semiconductor industry in Taiwan. For the rapid market changes and development of wafer technologies of semiconductor industry, traditional data analysis methods not perform well in the high variety and time series data. Textual data and time series data were collected from seasonal reports of TSMC including financial information. Textual data through sentiment analysis by considering the event intervention both from internal events of the company and the external global events. Using the sentiment-enhanced time series data, the LSTM model was adopted for predicting industry trend of TSMC. The prediction results reveal significant development of wafer technology of TSMC and the potential threatens in the global market, and matches the product released news of TSMC and the international news. The contribution of the work performed accurately in industry trend prediction of the semiconductor industry by considering both the internal and external event intervention, and the prediction results provide valuable information of semiconductor industry both in research and business aspects.